Friday, August 1, 2008

2008 NFL Preview (Music Edition)

Yes, my friends...the See You Next Tuesday blog is being pulled from the mothballs for the 2008 NFL season! And I/We promise we will make a good faith effort to stick it out for the entire yeah this time. I figured I’d kick things off with a team-by-team brief preview. But rather than just your run-of-the-mill prediction column, I tried to take a bit of a novel approach by choosing a song that corresponds to each team as they enter the 2008 campaign. I’m sure this idea has probably been done before, but whatever.

From this point forward, the term analysis is used in the loosest way possible.

* = Wild Card team


AFC EAST

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Song: King Nothing – Metallica

Pertinent Lyrics: Then it all crashes down / and you break your crown / and you point your finger but there’s no one around / Just want one thing / just to play the king / But the castle’s crumbled and you’re left with just a name / Where’s your crown King Nothing?

Analysis: We all know the story. Undefeated regular season...13-point Super Bowl favorites...Had a book being written about their perfect 19-0 season before the championship game was even played (worst jinx ever?)...Suffered the greatest upset loss in Super Bowl history. I don’t know exactly how the Pats’ season will play out, but it’s guaranteed to be interesting. Their air of invincibility was stripped away by the Giants and nobody will be afraid of them this season the way they were in '07. And I don’t think anybody is expecting Brady or Moss or even Wes Welker to put up the silly numbers they did last season. But the offense should still be one of the best in football and the Pats should remain the class on the AFC East.

2. BUFFALO BILLS

Song: Only the Young - Journey

Pertinent Lyrics: In the shadows of a golden age / a generation waits for dawn / Brave carry on / Bold and the strong / Only the young can say / they're free to fly away / Sharing the same desires / Burnin' like wildfire

Analysis: The Bills are about a 7 out of 10 on the Sleeper Scale that I just made up. They were an 8.5 at this time last year. But unlike last year, I'm buying into them in 2008. I love their young core on the offensive side of the ball. Marshawn Lynch was the best rookie in 2007 not named Adrian Peterson and is primed for a big season. Trent Edwards plays smart and doesn't try to do more than he's capable of. In other words, he's the anti-J.P. Losman. And lee Evans is still a viable deep threat despite his fantasy team-murdering season last year. But this is not to say that the Bills don't have questions. As I write this, their most important offensive player, LT Jason Peter, is still not in camp. They need to get that resolved in a hurry. Also, I know Bills fans are geeked up about picking up Marcus Stroud to anchor the defensive line, but I'm a bit skeptical about this one. I just don't think Jacksonville would have let him go so easily if he was the same player who dominated the middle for the past several years with the Jags. Buffalo will be an interesting team to keep an eye on.

3. NEW YORK JETS

Song: New York Minute - The Eagles

Pertinent Lyrics: In a New York minute / anything can change / In a New York minute / things can get pretty strange

Analysis: The Jets reinforced their team this offseason with a lot of quality veterans, giving the impression that they want to win now. The addition of Brett Favre will be an all-or-nothing proposition. (And it is is really weird seeing him in a Jets jersey). If they get off to a poor start, say 1-5, I can see Favre losing his passion to play and packing it in early. However, if they're in the playoff hunt late in the season (which I think they will be), Favre will be in vintage form trying to show the Packers that he still has what it takes. The big loser in the Favre Saga is Chad Pennington because he was most likely going to win the starting QB job before Favre showed up. A quick aside on Pennington: a lot of players go from being underrated to being overrated during their careers (see: Rashean Mathis, Adalius Thomas, Asante Samuel, Darrell Jackson, et al), but Pennington has done the opposite. From 2002 - 2004, he played well but was hyped up because 1) he rarely made mistakes, 2) he was a winner, and 3) he was the quarterback of the New York Jets. But since then, he's gotten hurt a few times and the Jets have had bad years, causing the fans to turn on him (culminating last season when fans cheered his injury). I felt bad for him because this guy has given everything he can offer to the franchise and he's proven that he can win in the NFL. He deserves better than that, and I hope he beats the Jets in week 1 now that he's in Miami. But getting back to the Jets; Mangini clearly has a better team than the one he took to the playoffs two years ago. I see them going into the last week of the season with a chance to grab one of the wild card spots.

4. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Song: Back In the High Life Again - Steve Winwood

Pertinent Lyrics: I'll be back in the high life again / All the doors I closed one time will open up again / I'll be back in the high life again / All the eyes that watched me once will smile and take me in

Analysis: I'm not an NFL historian or anything, but I'm reasonably certain that no team has ever rebounded from a 1-15 season to make the playoffs the following year. And I don't expect the Dolphins to be the first. Sure they'll be better. But that's not tough to do when a 3-win season would be a 200% improvement. The more important thing is that the Dolphins are at least relevant again. With Bill Parcells running the team, a legitimate quarterback (Chad Pennington) for the first time in a decade, and Ricky Williams' comeback bid, people have reasons to care about (or at least watch) the Dolphins again. The intriguing story with this team for me is Ricky Williams. Normally I wouldn't give a crap about him, but there are some interesting circumstances surrounding him. 1) Parcells has really taken to him. And the Tuna doesn't put just anybody in his good graces. 2) Ricky needs money. He's still on the hook for a few million with the Dolphins. Which leads to 3) He's playing for a new contract. Taking his age into consideration, this will be his last chance to convince a team to give him a big contract that he so desperately needs. Maybe we'll see a new Ricky. All you fantasy geeks keep that in mind. Unless you're in the same league as me, in which case I read a recent report that he's planning to go teach yoga in Nepal for the entire season. Don't bother confirming that though.AFC NORTH

AFC NORTH

1. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Song: Fun Night – Andrew W.K.

Pertinent Lyrics: We won’t go away / and we heard what you said / Because we just don’t need it / We just wanted fun / and we’re gonna get some / and you better believe it.

Analysis: Fun is because the Browns are a fun team to watch. Between Braylan Edwards, Kellen Winslow and now Donte Stallworth, they have guys who can make life miserable for secondaries. Throw in the best return man in the AFC, Josh Cribbs, and you’re a team that can really put up the points. Night is because the Browns will be playing FIVE prime-time games this season after not having played under the lights since 1990! Yes, the last time the Browns took the field for a nationally televised prime time game, Cheers was still the #1 show on tv, Vanilla Ice (regretfully) burst onto the scene and our current president's FATHER was in the White House. I know they have a ton of question marks in the secondary. And that they probably won't get another resurgent year from Jamal Lewis. But I'm picking them to win the division because their offense should keep them in every game. Also, everybody else is picking the Steelers to win the AFC North and I will not be labeled a poseur!

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Song: Don't You Forget About Me - Simple Minds

Pertinent Lyrics: Don't you forget about me / Don't don't don't don't / Don't you forget about me

Analysis: I get the feeling that a lot of people are sleeping on the Steelers a bit. I know what you're saying, "But Justin, you picked them to finish second behind the Browns, who, I might add, had and AWFUL defense last year and didn't do much to improve in that area." To that I will reply, "Touche." I'm regretting doing that already, but if I had picked the Steelers to win the division, everybody would say, "Wow! Way to go out on a limb and pick the Steelers to win the division, you loser who writes a blog that nobody reads." Whatever. The Steelers didn't lose anybody of great significance in the offseason, they drafted an absolute stud of an RB in Rashard Mendenhall, and Ben Roethlisberger is coming off his best season as a pro. I like their chances in Coach Omar Epps' second season at the helm.

3. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Song: Bad Reputation - Thin Lizzy

Pertinent Lyrics: You got a bad reputation / That's the word out on the town / It gives a certain fascination / but it can only bring you down

Analysis: I don't know if there's anything to say about the Bengals that hasn't already been said. Despite all the drama surrounding them, they're a pretty easy team to figure out. The offense, with Carson Palmer, Rudy Johnson (eventually Kenny Watson followed by Chris Perry, after Johnson's inevitable injury), T.J. Houshyourmamanow, and Chad "Batshit" Johnson is good enough to win at least 5 games by itself. But the defense is so poor that they won't be able to win more than 9 games. My guess? They finish 7-9 and Marvin Lewis is fired after week 14. [Note: I just heard the news today that the Bengals re-signed Chris Henry. This causes me to change my prediction from 7-9 and Marvin Lewis being fired after week 14 to 5-11 with Marvin Lewis resigning after week 9 and Carson Palmer demanding a trade after the season. Oh, and someone will murder Chris Henry.] [Note II: Carson Palmer's recent nose injury is not great news for the Bengals, but it did provide us with this photo showing Palmer looking an awful lot like Andrew W.K.. This is definitely a good thing.]

4. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Song: Running on Empty - Jackson Browne

Pertinent Lyrics: In sixty-nine I was twenty-one and I called the road my own / I don't know when that road turned into the road I'm on / Running on - running on empty / Running on - running blind

Analysis: I see another rocky season in Baltimore. Not as bad as last year, but only slightly less miserable. Gone are the days when the Ravens defense was so good that it could win games on its own. And this is yet another team with QB questions. There's a choice to be made between the known commodity (Kyle Boller), the unknown commodity (Troy Smith) and the REALLY unknown commodity (rookie Joe Flacco). My money is on Troy Smith. It's not so much a hunch as it is knowing that Kyle Boller sucks and that Joe Flacco is a rookie from Delaware. That's the University of Delaware, where he played against the likes of Holy Cross and Villanova. Now, the Ravens won't be an easy out for anybody. The defense isn't the fiersome unit it used to be, but they can still make life miserable for offenses. They seem to rise to the occasion when the situation calls for it (see last year's game against New England). In the end, I think new coach John Harbaugh will have a noticeable impact on the team as a whole, but they're not a playoff squad just yet.

AFC SOUTH

1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Song: Hungry Like the Wolf - Duran Duran

Pertinent Lyrics: Burning the ground, I break from the crowd / I'm on the hunt, I'm after you / I smell like I sound / I'm lost and I'm found / And I'm hungry like the wolf

Analysis: This is the year the Jags get over the hump. More specifically, the year they overtake the Colts and win the division. This team is built to maul; offensively and defensively. They're big and tough on both sides of the ball. They used their first two picks on speed pass-rushers specifically to make life miserable for Peyton Manning. (Prediction: 2nd round pick Quentin Groves out of Auburn is a monster. If healthy, he'll finish with more sacks than 1st rounder Derrick Harvey.) With David Garrard getting a few more weapons to throw to (though not very good ones), a running game that speaks for itself, and the solid defense, this is a team I really like.

2. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS*

Song: Still the Same – Bob Seger

Pertinent Lyrics: And you’re still the same / I caught up with you yesterday / Moving game to game / No one standing in your way / Turning on the charm / Long enough to get you by / You’re still the same / You still aim high

Analysis: Is it just me, or do the Colts seem to have fielded nearly the same exact team for past five or six years? Since Tony Dungy got there, and as long as Peyton Manning is walking upright, it seems like everybody expects them to win between 11 and 14 games but then flame out in the playoffs. And with the exception of the title run in 2006, they’ve done exactly that. Should we expect anything different in 2008? As of right now, I'm a bit worried about Manning. He has the same knee problem that Marvin Harrison had last season, and we all saw how much time Harrison missed last year (especially those of us, myself included, who watched him hold our fantasy teams hostage with his iffy status every week). If I'm a Colts fan, I'm praying that Manning handles the injury a lot better than Harrison did because I don't want to see Jim Sorgi under center when the Colts open up their new stadium.

3. HOUSTON TEXANS

Song: Something In the Way - Nirvana

Pertinent Lyrics: Something in the way / mmmm / Something in the way / yeah / mmmm

Analysis: The “something in the way” of the Texans is two of the four best teams in the AFC, namely the Jaguars and the Colts. Houston has built one of the best young defenses in football, led by 3rd year stars Demeco Ryans and Mario "Reggie Who?" Williams. Unfortunately they’re stuck in arguably the best division in the league, and a lot of things will need to go the Texans' way for them to get into the playoffs. But if Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson can stay healthy and the defense continues to mature, they'll be in the mix.

4. TENNESSEE TITANS

Song: High Enough – Damn Yankees

Pertinent Lyrics: Can you take me high enough / to fly me over yesterday / Can you take me high enough / It’s never over / Yesterday’s just a memory

Analysis: The individual being asked to take the Titans “high enough” is one Vince Young. Remarkably, he led this team to the playoffs last year despite not having a single wide reciever on the roster anybody outside of Nashville could name. And this offseason, the Titans front office rewarded his valiant efforts by signing…Justin McCariens and Algae Crumpler. Wow! Look out Brady and Moss! You've got competition for the league's best QB-WR tandem! Geez, it's no wonder Vince has thought about retirement already. Oh, and just for fun, here's the High Enough video (Quite easily one of the top 5 best/worst videos ever made).

AFC WEST

1. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Song: In The Air Tonight – Phil Collins

Pertinent Lyrics: And I can feel it coming in the air tonight, oh lord / I've been waiting for this moment for all my life, oh lord / I can feel it in the air tonight, oh lord, oh lord / And I've been waiting for this moment all my life, oh lord, oh lord


Analysis: I just get the feeling that this is the Chargers' year. Man for man, this is the best roster in football. They've proven that they can go into Indy and win. And I think they gained a ton of confidence last year going into New England in January and giving the Patriots one heck of a game (with no LT and a one-legged Philip Rivers, no less). The Chargers won't be intimidated by anybody. What they need to do is put it all together and win a championship sometime within the next three years, lest they end up becoming the NFL's version of the Rick Adelman-era Sacramento Kings. I thought they were going to take a hit with Shawne Merriman having season-ending knee surgery. But it now appears that after travelling to New York, Minnesota, Alabama and Florida to see a total of five...yes, five...different orthopedic surgeons who ALL told him that he should have ligament surgery, Merriman natrually decided to forego the procedure and play this season. This is ridiculous on so many levels that I'll go through them one by one. 1-Merriman is only 24 years old. It's not as if he's a 30 year old linebacker in a walk year looking for a big season to get one last big contract. If he sits out the season, he'll still be in his prime for 4-5 years when he comes back. 2-Getting a second opinion is fairly commonplace. Getting a third opinion is rare, but it happens. But I don't think I've ever heard of an athlete getting a FIFTH opinion. I can see getting one if you've been diagnosed with cancer or some terminal disease, but we're talking about TORN KNEE LIGAMENTS!!! 3-One of the surgeons whose opinion was dismissed by Merriman was none other than Dr. James Andrews. Has this ever happened before? Does
anybody blow off Dr. Andrews' advice? I wouldn't bet on it. 4-Merriman has been told that further injury to the knee could be career-threatening. Again, he's only 24 years old. If I'm A.J. Smith, I'd be paying somebody to sedate Merriman and transport him to the nearest orthopedic surgeon to have the procedure performed.

2. OAKLAND RAIDERS

Song: You May Be Right - Billy Joel

Pertinent Lyrics: You may be right / I may be crazy / But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for / It's too late to fight / It's too late to change me / You may be wrong for all I know / but you may be right.

Analysis: The Raiders are my pick for the Surprise Team of 2008. Unbeknownst to many, they've built a good young defense. Most of the questions lie on the offensive side of the ball, where JaMarcus Russell is entering his first full season as the starter. I'm not sure exactly who he's going to be throwing the ball to or how well he'll be protected, but they have a deep stable of running backs, headlined by 1st round pick Darren McFadden, whom Al Davis selected using his painstakingly complex draft philosophy of "picking the fastest guy available who is also pretty good at football." Personally, I think he got caught up in Adrian Peterson mania and didn't want to miss out on the best back in the draft for the second year in a row. If McFadden plays anywhere close to the level at which Peterson played in his rookie season, the Raiders will make some noise. Yes, Al Davis is slipping into senility, but he has brought arguably the two most talented players (Russell and McFadden) in the entire combined 2007 and 2008 draft classes. We'll see if it pays off.

3. DENVER BRONCOS

Song: Weird Science – Oingo Boingo

Pertinent Lyrics: From my heart and from my hand / Why don’t people understand / my intentions…oooh, weird / Weird science

Analysis: I think we can officially stop referring to Mike Shanahan as a genius. When he had John Elway, Terrell Davis and the league's best offensive line, things seemed to work out pretty well. But ever since then, he's made a lot of very strange (read: bad) decisions. The most notorious being the signing the entire former Cleveland Browns defensive line a few years ago. But he does have some nice pieces to work with; a young promising QB with an Elway-like arm, a talented young WR who likes to punch television sets, a very good LB corps, and one of the top DB tandems in the league. That being said, I'd feel a lot better about them if they had a dominant pass-rush.

4. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Song: Learning to Fly - Tom Petty

Pertinent Lyrics: I'm learning to fly / but I ain't got wings / Coming down is the hardest thing

Analysis: The Chiefs have taken a good approach to rebuilding their team after an abysmal season that saw them lose their final nine games. Thanks to the Jared Allen trade with the Vikings, they were able to draft a league-high 12 players. The prize catches of their draft class were two highly-touted first round picks, Glenn Dorsey and Branden Albert, both of whom were picked to strengthen Kansas City's offensive and defensive lines. But this team still has big needs in the secondary, offensive line and, most importantly, at quarterback. It remains to be seen if Brodie "I Have a Hot Wife" Croyle can play at an NFL level.


NFC EAST

1. DALLAS COWBOYS

Song: A Little Less Conversation – Elvis Presley

Pertinent Lyrics: A little less conversation, a little more action please / All this aggravation ain’t satisfactioning me / A little more bite and a little less bark / A little less fight and a little more spark / Close your mouth and open up your heart and baby satisfy me

Analysis: From the moment the Super Bowl ended, the Cowboys have been the consensus pick to win the NFC in 2008, and with good reason. They have a top-flight QB, a dynamic offense, and a big intimidating defense. But let's remember a few things. Tony Romo has played two of the worst games of his life in the Cowboys' two most recent playoff losses. There was the holding debacle in Seattle two years ago, and then he looked utterly helpless in the face of the Giants' pass-rush in last year's divisional playoff loss in Dallas. This is also a team that hasn't won a playoff game since 1996. Even the CARDINALS have won a playoff game since then (against the Cowboys in Dallas, I might add). All that being said, they will probably win the NFC East. We'll have to wait and see if they live up to the hype come playoff time.

2. NEW YORK GIANTS*

Song: Stronger – Kanye West

Pertinent Lyrics: Bow in the presence of greatness / cause right now thou has forsaken us

Analysis: Has there ever been a defending Super Bowl champion to start the following season with less fanfare? The Giants aren't even the most talked about team that plays that plays in their stadium, let alone their division, conference or league. But you get the feeling that this is how the Giants like it. They want everybody to discount them again. Just like they did when they went into Tampa. And then when they went into Dallas. And then when they went into Lambeau. And then when they went into Arizona as 13 point underdogs in a game that was supposed to be merely a coronation of an undefeated Patriots team. So I think that right about now, the Giants thinking is going something like this, "Go ahead, don't talk about us. Give all the local media attention to the Jets. Talk about the team that won 4 games last year. They got Brett Favre? That's great. Yeah, we beat him in his own house last year with a Super Bowl trip on the line." Do I think the Giants will repeat as Super Bowl champs? Probably not. But they'll play the "nobody respects us" card for as long as they can and should remain in playoff contention in the very-tough NFC East.

3. WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Song: Kickstart My Heart - Mötley Crüe

Pertinent Lyrics: Ohhhhh, yeahhhhh / Kickstart my heart / Give it a start / ohhhhh, yeahhhhh babyyyyyyy

Analysis: The Redskins are kind of a trendy pick this season. A lot of people (especially Peter King) seem to be under the impression that Jason Campbell is going to become a very good quarterback. It is conceivable that Campbell could turn into exactly that, however I don't think it will be this season, if ever. But the 'Skins went out and drafted two receivers (Devin Thomas [good] and Malcolm Kelly [huge douchebag]) and a talented tight end (Fred Davis) all in the 2nd round to give Campbell more weapons to throw to. But this team was good enough to make the playoffs last season without spectacular play on either side of the ball. And along with making the aforementioned upgrades to their offense, they pulled off a trade for Jason Taylor, instantly improving their defense. Washington now has a pair of athletic pass-rushing ends in Taylor and Andre Carter, who quietly racked up 10.5 sacks last season. The Redskins will be a very solid team, but I can see them finishing anywhere between 2nd and 4th in the tough NFC East.

4. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Song: What a Fool Believes – The Doobie Brothers


Pertinent Lyrics: But what a fool believes he sees / no wise man has the power to reason away / What seems to be is always better than nothing.


Analysis: Prior to moving to South Jersey, I had no bias toward the Eagles, positive or negative. But after living in Eagles country for a little over a year now, I have grown to despise them. No, check that. I have grown to despise Eagles fans. They are the most moronic, ill-informed fans of any team in any sport I have ever encountered. The vast majority of them want them to kick Donovan McNabb (the best QB in team history, by the way) to the curb in favor of Kevin Kolb, a 2nd year guy who hasn't thrown a pass in an NFL game. No, I am not making this up. Fans are calling up sportstalk radio stations here in Philly and screaming about how they want to get rid of the 4th or 5th best QB in the NFL in favor of an untested kid out of the University of Houston. My hatred grows by the day, which is why I'm now picking them to finish last in the division. This is my one and only biased pick in this column. If you’ve ever been to eastern Pennsylvania or south Jersey, you’d understand.

NFC NORTH

1. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Song: Promised Land - Bruce Springsteen

Pertinent Lyrics: The dogs on main street howl, 'cause they understand / If I could take one moment into my hands / Mister, I ain't a boy, no I'm a man / And I believe in a promised land

Analysis: The Vikings enter the season with high expectations for the first time in nearly a decade. Zygi Wilf opened up the wallet during the offseason to bring in Madieu Williams, Bernard Berrian and Jared Allen (among others). Although Williams and Berrian were overvalued and overpaid, they do provide significant upgrades to positions of need (passing defense and offense) for Minnesota. As for the Allen trade; sure the Vikes gave up a lot, but this deal was a no-brainer. Any time you can bring in the league's leading sacker for a few draft picks, you do it. But the primary reason for optimism in the Land of 10,000 Lakes can be summed up in two words: Purple Jesus. Yes, football fans, Vikings faithful have likened Adrian Peterson to the messiah. (I, for one, think it's an unfair comparison. Jesus Christ was never very adept at running between the tackles and his spin-move left a lot to be desired.) He says he wants to rush for 2,000 yards this season, and you'd be hard-pressed to find somebody who doesn't think he can do it. But Peterson can rush for 3,000 yards and the Vikings would still only go as far as Tarvaris Jackson takes them. Jackson is 8-4 as a starter but needs to cut down on his mistakes and, perhaps more importantly, stay on the field. He's shown a propensity to get hurt during his brief two year career. If he can prove to be a competent quarterback who can effectively manage the game and make a few big plays against defenses geared to stop Peterson, the Vikings can win the NFC. If he falters, he will take the Vikes down with him.

2. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Song: Brave New World - Iron Maiden

Pertinent Lyrics: Dragon kings dying queens, where is salvation now / Lost my life lost my dreams, rip the bones from my flesh / Silent screams laughing here, dying to tell you the truth / You are planned and you are damned in this brave new world

Analysis: I think the Packers are going to find life difficult without Brett Favre. Clearly, he gives the Packers a better chance to win now than Aaron Rodgers. But at the same time, I can understand why they made the change now. Rodgers' contract only runs through 2009. If the Packers took Favre back and made him the starter this year, Rodgers probably would have told them, "Fine. You can do that. But I will NOT sign a new contract with you after next season. Nice knowin ya." Also, Ted Thompson wasn't about to have the guy he spent a 1st round pick on spend his entire Packer career on the bench. Not after paying him $7.7 million dollars. But all that drama aside, this is a good football team. The defense played great last season...at least until the playoffs started. At which point they were shredded in two games, both at home. (Al Harris probably still has nightmares about Plaxico Burress running circles around him in the NFC championship game.) But they should be solid again. I'm not completely sold on Ryan Grant being a top NFL running back though. I'll need to see him do it again for a full season now that he won't be surprising anybody. The bottom line is that Rodgers is in a very tough spot and he will need to play well for the Packers to make the playoffs. He certainly must play better than he has thus far in the pre-season.

3. DETROIT LIONS

Song: Casey Jones - Grateful Dead

Pertinent Lyrics: Trouble with you is the trouble with me / Got two good eyes but we still don't see / Come round the bend / You know it's the end / The fireman screams and the engine just gleams

Analysis: This Grateful Dead classic goes out to Matt Millen and the Ford family. The Lions did nothing this offseason to significantly better or worsen their chances. They reached for OT Goster Cherilus with their first pick in the draft, but made a great selection with the first pick on day 2 in RB Kevin Smith out of UCF. One would think that Smith should certainly beat out Tatum Bell for the starting job and add another element to an already-good offense that should put up better numbers than it did last season. Not many teams can brag about having a better tandem of wide recievers than Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson (who is poised for a MONSTER year). But the overall talent level of this team is mediocre at best, especially on defense. They have one of the league's top young linebackers in Ernie Sims, but the rest of the defensive starters are retreads from other teams and no-names. A 9-7 record from this group would be a successful season. And if that happens, expect the Ford family to sign Matt "How Does He Still Have This Job" Millen to a 47 year contract extension.

4. CHICAGO BEARS

Song: Destined for Nothing - Bad Religion

Pertinent Lyrics: Headed for eternity and destined for nothing / The future isn't difficult to see

Analysis: Does anybody not look at this team and say, "These guys were in the Super Bowl two years ago???" Since the end of last season, the Bears have lost their best WR Bernard Berrian (to the Vikings, a team in their division), cut their starting RB Cedric Benson (not exactly a big loss), and have amazingly refused to address the QB situation either through free agency or the draft. Outside of their defensive front seven, this team is absolutely dreadful. Chicago-area columnist and former mullet-sporter Jay Mariotti actually made a passionate argument in the Chicago Sun Times…an actual REAL and respectable newspaper…for Kyle Orton to be the starting QB. When things are so bad at the QB position that you think Kyle Orton will be an improvement, you know things are bad.

NFC SOUTH

1. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Song: Back in the Saddle Again - Aerosmith

Pertinent Lyrics: I'm riding / I'm loading up my pistol / I'm riding / I really got a fistful / I'm riding / I'm shining up my saddle / I'm riding / This snake is gonna rattle

Analysis: Will the Saints be the team that got off to an awful start last year or the team that played great in the second half? I say it's the latter. With the addition of Jeremy Shockey (best pass catching TE in the fanchise's history) and if Deuce MacAllister comes back healthy, this can be the best offense in the NFC. The addition of Johnathan Vilma didn't gain much press, but I think it's a huge move. He should thrive now that he's back in his natural position, manning the MLB spot in a 4-3 defense. And defense is where this team needs to most improve over last season, when they finished 26th in yards allowed. If MacAllister is indeed fully healthy this season, it will allow Reggie Bush to move to the swing-back role for which he is a better fit. We all saw last season that he is terribly ineffective when he is asked to shoulder the entire load.

2. CAROLINA PANTHERS*

Song: Mama Said Knock You Out - LL Cool J

Pertinent Lyrics: Don't you dare stare / You betta move / Don't ever compare me to the rest that'll all get sliced and diced / Competition's payin the price / I'm gonna knock you out / Mama said knock you out

Analysis: This theme song goes out to Steve Smith. And no, not just because he resembles a somewhat pudgier-faced version of LL Cool J. It goes back to a few weeks ago when Smith decided to channel his inner Steven Seagal and break Ken Lucas's nose during training camp. Why did he do it exactly? Nobody within the Panther organization has provided anything resembling a clear explanation, which leads me to believe that Steve Smith is, simply put, a dick. He also happens to be one of the best receivers in the league, which explains why he was only suspended for 2 games instead of being kicked off the team. If Dwayne Jarrett had pulled this same stunt, I can guarantee he would have been cut before the end of practice that day. Frankly, I'm surprised that Smith got any suspension at all. I give the Panthers credit for taking a hard-line stance on this. It takes a lot to suspend your best player for the first 2 games of the season, especially when you're a fringe team like the Panthers where one win or loss could mean the difference between making the playoffs or not.

3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Song: Love the One You're With - Crosby Stills Nash and Young

Pertinent Lyrics: Concentration slip away / cause your baby is so far away / Well there's a rose in a fisted glove / and the eagle flies with the dove / And if you can't be with the one you love / love the one you're with

Analysis: The Bucs desperately wanted Brett Favre. Bruce Allen made no secret about it. It was rumored that Jon Gruden had a boner for 10 straight days thinking about the possibility of attaining Favre. But then the Jets swooped in with a richer offer at the last minute and now Gruden has a doubly-pissed off starting QB on his hands. Back in the Spring, Garcia was so ticked off because he felt like he should be making more money (you know, because he's so awesome). Then he has to deal with everybody in the organization getting all geeked up about the possibility of Favre taking his job. The relationship between Garcia and the team has apparently been mended, which is good because he probably gives the team a better chance to win than any of the other 29 quarterbacks on the roster.

4. ATLANTA FALCONS

Song: No More Drama - Mary J. Blige

Pertinent Lyrics: So tired, tired of all this drama / You go your way and I'll go my way / I need to be free / So tired, tired tired from all this drama

Analysis: This team is damaged goods. Ask anybody what they think of when they hear the term "Atlanta Falcons" and the first think they'll say is "Michael Vick." Therein lies the problem. Not only is the team's most famous player not even on the team, but he's also a convicted felon currently sitting in a federal prison. The team didn't exactly do much to make fans excited about the team after last year's debacle. First they whiffed on bringing in a high-level executive (Bill Parcells). Then they hire a no-name head coach (Mike Smith). Then they spend the #3 overall pick on an overrated QB from Boston College (Matt Ryan). And then their most high-profile free agent signing is a former backup RB (albeit a good one), Michael Turner from San Diego. I understand the Ryan pick because they needed a QB. And I understand the Turner pickup because they needed a RB. But neither of those moves are going to make fans buy season tickets again. I think we're at least two years away from the Falcons being relevant again.

NFC WEST

1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Song: Got Em Hatin - Plies

Pertinent Lyrics: You want the 26s, huh, I already done bought em / You can't do what I do and that's part of the problem / I got the haters goin crazy I ain't trying to stop em / You want the streets, hot dog, I already done locked em

Analysis: Mike Holmgren's swan song in Seattle will result in another division title because the division is so incredibly bad that they almost win it by default. There's the usual chatter that permeates the NFL airwaves this time of year about the Cardinals finally becoming a winner (more on them below), but the talent level in Seattle is still head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC West. They lost the franchise's all-time leading rusher (Shaun Alexander) and nobody seemed to really notice, let alone downgrade their chances to repeat as division champs. Their defense is one of the best in the game. They have a great homefield advantage. They're well-coached. And they have talent all over the field. What's not to like about em? (Besides the fact that they only have about 2 healthy recievers.)

2. ARIZONA CARDINALS

Song: Someday Never Comes – Creedence Clearwater Revival

Pertinent Lyrics: Well I’m here to tell you now each and every mother’s son / That you better learn it fast, you better learn it young / ‘Cause someday never comes

Analysis: How many consecutive years have the Cardinals been a consensus sleeper pick now? Four? Five? Well I'm done. I've been sucked into the varying degrees of hype too many times. There's something fundamentally flawed with the culture of this team that will never allow them to be successful without drastic changes being made at the top. It's not that they don't have talent; they certainly do. But the Bidwills are incredibly inept when it comes to building a team. They have the best pair of WRs in the league, a good interior defensive line, above average LBs, and good players in the secondary. But they have a brittle prima donna QB who's been overrated from the moment he declared for the NFL draft, an overpaid RB who may be just about done, and an offensive line that is truly offensive (ba-ZING!). Anybody who knows anything about football knows that you build a team from the inside out, starting in the trenches. Until the Cards get some players up front, all those fans buying seats in that fancy new stadium can expect more of the same.

3. ST. LOUIS RAMS

Song: I Need You - America

Pertinent Lyrics: You know I need you / Like the winter needs the spring / you know I need you / I need you

Analysis: I just can't get any sort of read on the Rams. They were an awful team last year, but they didn't have Steven Jackson for much of the season. They've used their two most recent 1st round draft picks on Adam Carriker and Chris Long to add some talent to their defensive line, which should be quite formidable this year. But the big question is their offensive line. Orlando Pace hasn't played a full season since 2005 and they're relying on 4th-year bust Alex Barron to man the right tackle spot. Yikes. But the most important issue the Rams had all offseason was Steven Jackson's holdout. It took a while for the two sides to come to an agreement, but the issue was never in doubt. The Rams know that he's too important to the team and Jackson knew that, which is why he was able to get a new deal even after a season in which he missed four games (the Rams, by the way, scored 7 points or less in 3 of those 4 games). Again, Jackson will be the key to St. Louis's chances. But the Rams defense will need to show significant improvement if they want to compete for a playoff spot. The best thing they have going for them is that they play in the worst division in football.

4. SAN FRANSISCO 49ers

Song: Nowhere – Therapy?

Pertinent Lyrics: Shouting at the world you’ll never change / But it’s what’s inside you’ve got to rearrange / Going nowhere, going nowhere

Analysis: And you thought Alex Smith's life couldn't get any worse. Let's review. First, he's the #1 overall pick in 2006 for no other reason that he's the highest rated QB in one of the most awful QB classes in recent memory (Adrian MacPherson, Charlie Frye, Kyle Orton, Stefan LeFors, et al.). THEN he's stuck on an awful 49ers team that's so cap-strapped during his first 2 years that it can't even bring in good players. THEN his QB guru Norv Turner leaves to coach the Chargers. THEN he's saddled with his fourth offensive coordinator in four years. Oh, and that fourth coordinator is Mike "437,000 Page Playbook" Martz. Maybe Smith will want to spend some of his 1st Overall Pick contract money on Reading Genius during training camp. Regarding the rest of the Niners, Frank Gore will provide some bright spots and fans will enjoy watching Defensive Rookie of the Year Patrick Willis run all over the field making plays, but I'm sure even Niner fans know the team is terrible. [NOTE: It now appears that Smith will be beaten out for the starting QB job by former Saint/Packer/Viking/Frankfurt Galaxian/Patriot/Panther/Lion J.T. O'Sullivan. This is just a suggestion, but Smith may want to just jump off the Golden Gate Bridge right now to save himself any further embarrassment.]