Justin here. These are my predictions for the upcoming season. Like Joe mentioned above, these picks will probably make for some great comedy material come February (especially my Rookie of the Year and MVP picks). But until then, I'm gonna do my best prognosticating.
(Keep in mind that I've never been good at this. For instance, last year I predicted a Bengals vs. Panthers Super Bowl. Translation: I wouldn't make any monetary wagers based on this information.)
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Miami Dolphins
Comments: Barring the team plane being the target of a terrorist attack or Tom Brady being arrested for the murder of Bridget Moynahan, the Pats will run away with the division. The only real argument here, as far as I'm concerned, is whether Miami or Buffalo will finish last. Buffalo is a chic sleeper pick, but I'm not buying it. The defense lost their leader and best player (Takeo Spikes) and J.P. Losman is J.P. Losman. As for the Dolphins, they used the #9 overall pick on a brittle kick returner and are pinning their hopes on a 37 year old quarterback. I considered the Jets as a wild card team until I saw Chad Pennington play in the preseason.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Cincinnatti Bengals*
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Comments: I'd like to pick the Bengals to win the division but Baltimore improved a team that finished with 13 wins last year while the Bengals did next to nothing to upgrade their league-worst pass defense. Cincy takes the wild card. The Browns finish out of last for the first time in years. I have no valid reason for making that prediction. I love Mike Tomlin, but I think Roethlisberger shot his loan during his rookie year.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Jacksonville Jaguars*
3. Houston Texans
4. Tennessee Titans
Comments: This division will come down the the last week or two of the season. If the Jags play consistently on offense, they could overtake the Colts. They have the best running game and by far the best defense of the four teams. Of course, consistency is tough to maintain when Byron Leftwich is your quarterback, but I still think they make the playoffs. The Texans could make some noise, but I hate their offensive line, their ground game and their secondary. I've had a man-crush on Vince Young ever since he put on that performance for the ages in the Rose Bowl, but the Titans are still a year away.
AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Denver Broncos
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders
Comments: Not even Norv Turner can squander this opportunity. At least I don't think he can. The Chargers have the most talent in the league and will win at least 12 games. They actually should win 15 or 16 games, but you can count on Norv to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory a handfull of times. The Broncos contend, but end up as the odd man out in the wild card race. The Chiefs are the "blah-est" team in the league. And the Raiders. I see them finishing either second or last in the division. They played excellend defense last year (no I'm not making that up, check the stats) but there has been no improvement to the woeful offense other than the all-or-nothing acquisition of Daunte Culpepper. If he even comes close to resembling his 2004 self, the Raiders could win a bunch of 17-13 games and sniff a wild card spot.
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys*
3. Washington Redskins
4. New York Giants
Comments: Donovan McNabb's health is the deciding factor here. If plays all season, the Eagles win the division. If not, then it's probably the Cowboys, provided Tony Romo is fully recovered from perhaps the worst playoff choke job since Gary Anderson wide left. My co-writer above likes the 'Skins, but I don't know about Jason Campbell. But they do have a good O-line, solid running game and a great secondary, so they have a shot to make some noise. Then you have the Giants, who have questions on both lines, a first-time starter at RB, a QB facing a make-or-break season, and a lame duck coach. Not exactly a recipe for a playoff run.
NFC NORTH
1. Detroit Lions
2. Chicago Bears
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Green Bay Packers
Comments: Arguably the worst division in football. Minus the arguably part. But I'm drinking the Detroit Kool Aid this year, even though they have "2005 and 2006 Arizona Cardinals" written all over them. The offense will be even better in Mike Martz's second year and they do have one of the best front sevens in the league, led by a defensive line that's both big in the middle and can rush the passer from the outside. John Kitna will be in the thick of the MVP running. I can't believe I just said that, either. The Bears are due to regress. My beloved Vikings will fight to stay out of last place, which is frustrating because they are a solid team everywhere except for the quarterback position. As goes T-Jack, so go the Vikes. The Packers did nothing to improve their team in the off-season (whiffing on Randy Moss, awful draft). But when you have Brett Favre, you always have a chance...to turn the ball over a lot and put a lot of pressure on your mediocre defense.
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Atlanta Falcons
Comments: I'm going with the Saints by default because I don't like any of the other teams in this division to have good years. Plus, Reggie Bush may set a record for most "HOLY CRAP HE DID NOT JUST DO THAT!" plays this season. I think that Jeff Garcia will actually have a good season in Tampa, but not THAT good of a season. The Panthers let me down tremendously last season and I have no reason to have faith in them this season. The interesting subplot to keep an eye on will be Falcons coach Bobby Petrino possibly deciding to tank the season after a 1-4 start to ensure he gets the number one pick in the draft to select his old QB from Louisville, Brian Brohm.
NFC WEST
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Arizona Cardinals*
3. St. Louis Rams
4. San Fransisco 49ers
Comments: I'm not buying the 49ers hype. Not even a bit. The Rams intrigue me, but I'm not sold on their defense or their offensive line. Seattle still has the core of a team one year removed from the Super Bowl intact (Hasselbeck, Alexander, Walter Jones, Tatupu, Holmgren), plus a great homefield advantage. And I do fully believe that the Cardinals will make the playoffs. The offense will be top 10 in the league and the defense will be good enough to win 9 games.
COACH OF THE YEAR
Ken Whisenhunt. Arizona Cardinals
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Jarvis Moss. Defensive End, Denver Broncos
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Chris Henry. Running Back, Tennessee Titans
MVP
1. Donovan McNabb
2. Peyton Manning
3. LaDanian Tomlinson
4. John Kitna
SUPERBOWL
Colts over Seahawks
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